Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 April 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S16W26) produced two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 05/1307 UTC and a C8.1 at 05/1521 UTC. New region 868 (S07W06) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 865 or 867.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Minor storm periods were observed from 05/0900 to 1200 UTC and 05/1200 to 1500 UTC. Heightened activity was due to sustained periods of southward Bz coupled with an increase in the total magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with active periods possible on 06 April. On 07 and 08 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 099
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  016/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  010/012-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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