Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 02 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 875 (S12W47)
produced a B2 flare at 02/1237Z. Region 879 (N16E07) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are expected
on 5 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 089 Predicted 03 May-05 May 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 02 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 008/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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