Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 03 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 877 (S05W41) produced a B2 flare at 03/0035 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 May. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 05 - 06 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 089
  Predicted   04 May-06 May  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        03 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/007-015/020-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%40%
Minor storm05%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%

All times in UTC

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