Viewing archive of Monday, 8 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 08 2206 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 882 (S12W45) continues in a growth phase, and increased in both area and magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare in Region 882.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. Solar wind speed remains elevated, ranging from 500 - 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 09 May. A large recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 10 May. Active periods are expected on 10 May, with minor to major storm periods possible on 11 May.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 May 085
  Predicted   09 May-11 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        08 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  017/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 May  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  005/008-008/012-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%40%
Minor storm01%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%50%
Minor storm05%10%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%20%

All times in UTC

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