Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 09 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 882
(S12W58), the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group on
the visible disk, exhibited no new growth and no activity of note
this period. A small B-class flare was observed in Region 883
(S04E26).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 882.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 10
May as a large, recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position. Active to minor storm periods are likely on 11 and 12 May,
and isolated major storm periods are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 083 Predicted 10 May-12 May 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 09 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/012-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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