Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 10 2216 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 882 (S12W70) showed no change this period, and produced no significant activity. Region 880 (S09W17), the only other region with sunspots on the visible disk, was stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The large recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is now rotating into a geoeffective position. Enhancements were observed in both the solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field measurements. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole is rotating into a geoeffective position. Expect active to minor storm periods on 11 and 12 May. Isolated major storm periods are possible on both days. Quiet to unsettled levels, with occasional active periods are expected on 13 May.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 May 078
  Predicted   11 May-13 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        10 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 May  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  025/030-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%25%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%30%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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