Viewing archive of Monday, 5 June 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 05 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892 (S08E53) continues in a growth phase and now exhibits an EKI beta-gamma sunspot group with a possible delta configuration in the leader spots. The overlying plage field has also intensified, but flare activity was limited to isolated B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 892 has potential for C-class activity. An isolated M-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 06 June. A large recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 07 June. Expect active levels with occasional minor storm periods on 07 and 08 June.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jun 078
  Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        05 Jun 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  005/008-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%40%35%
Minor storm01%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%50%45%
Minor storm05%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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