Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 898
(S06E14) still exhibits minor magnetic complexity, and produced a
B9.3 flare at 02/0832Z. Region 897 (N06W23) continues to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance of a C-class flare from
Region 898.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed has declined to
near 380 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position late on 03 July. Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods on 03 July. Occasional
active to minor storm periods are expected on 04 and 05 July.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 087 Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 012/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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