Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 June 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 07 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Activity consisted of several B-class flares. Region 892 (S07E29) has grown in size and magnetic complexity and developed a weak delta configuration. Region 893 (S01E52) has also grown in size during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a good chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 892. There is a slight chance also for an isolated M-class flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly active the past 24 hours due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind velocity remains elevated at 550 - 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field is forecast to be active for the next 24 - 36 hours (08 - 09/1200Z June) due to persistence of the high speed stream. Activity levels are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast interval (09/1200Z - 10 June).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jun 083
  Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun  086/089/090
  90 Day Mean        07 Jun 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  015/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jun  021/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  020/025-015/020-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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