Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 898 (S07W14) produced
two C-class events during the last 24 hours. The first was a C1 at
03/2304Z and the second was a C1 at 04/2029Z. Region 898 does not
appear to be growing and has relatively little magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (05-07 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
through 04/1200Z. Conditions were active from 1200-1500Z and
unsettled from 1500-2100Z. The increase in geomagnetic activity was
due to the onset of a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind
velocity increased slowly during the past 24 hours and the onset of
wave activity was clearly indicated in the interplanetary magnetic
field measurements.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (05 July)
as the coronal hole effects are expected to continue. Conditions
should subside to mostly unsettled for 06 July and to quiet to
unsettled for 07 July.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 088 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 015/020-010/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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