Viewing archive of Monday, 31 July 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 31 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at approximately 0300Z, 31 July. Several hours later solar wind speed increased to 550 - 600 km/s due to the presence of a high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible for the next 48 hours (01-02 August). This activity is due to a coronal hole high speed stream. As the high speed stream rotates past its geoeffective location, geomagnetic activity should decline to quiet conditions for the last day of the forecast period (03 August).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jul 072
  Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug  075/075/070
  90 Day Mean        31 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jul  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  015/020-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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