Viewing archive of Monday, 10 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A sudden impulse
was observed at the boulder magnetometer at 09/2137 UTC with a 48 nT
deviation. This resulted in the only active period between 09/2100 -
2400 UTC. Activity was the result of CME activity from 06 July.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 July. On 12 July, a
recurrent coronal hole stream is expected to cause unsettled to
active conditions with minor storm periods possible. On 13 July,
conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 073 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 005/008-015/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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