Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 899
(S06W18) underwent penumbral decay during the past 24 hours. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm conditions possible on 12 July due to a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 13 and 14 July as the coronal hole moves out of a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 071 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 015/030-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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