Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 July 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 901 (N06E70) produced several B-class flares. Region 900 (S06W65) is currently spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 23 July. Quiet to active levels are expected on 24-25 July, with possible minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The elevated conditions are due to the arrival of a CME from 20 July and a recurrent coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 074
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  005/005-015/015-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%40%50%
Minor storm05%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%

All times in UTC

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