Viewing archive of Friday, 21 July 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 900 (S06W52) produced two minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (22-23 July). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 24 July, due to the arrival of the CME that occurred on 20 July.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 073
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  003/005-005/005-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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