Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 August 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 17 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13W28) produced two C1 flares in the past 24 hours. This region continues to be the only spotted group on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 August. Expect active to minor storms levels on 19 August, with possible isolated major storm conditions. This activity is expected due to the full halo CME obseved on 16 August. Predominantly unsettled to active levels should return on 20 August.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Aug 086
  Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        17 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  010/010-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm10%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%30%
Minor storm15%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%10%

All times in UTC

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