Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13W28) produced
two C1 flares in the past 24 hours. This region continues to be the
only spotted group on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 August. Expect active to
minor storms levels on 19 August, with possible isolated major storm
conditions. This activity is expected due to the full halo CME
obseved on 16 August. Predominantly unsettled to active levels
should return on 20 August.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 086 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/010-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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