Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 August 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 16 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S12W15) produced a long duration C3.6/Sf flare with maximum occurring at 16/1617Z. An associated partial, or possibly full, halo CME was first observed on LASCO imagery at 16/1630Z. The estimated plane-of-sky speed was about 800 km/s. A Type IV radio sweep was associated with this event. In spite of today's activity, Region 904 has generally remained unchanged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet on 17-18 August. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated periods of minor storm levels, are expected on 19 August due to effects of the above-mentioned CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 086
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  086/090/090
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  005/005-005/005-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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