Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 900
(S04W38) continues to steadily decay. A partial halo CME was first
seen in LASCO imagery at 20/1354Z. EIT imagery showed a large
filament eruption and post-eruption loops in the southeastern
quadrant of the solar disk that began near 20/1236Z. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels. Due to the slow estimated velocity
of today's CME, the potential associated effects most likely will
occur just outside the forecast window.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 072 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 003/005-003/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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