Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 26 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 905 (S08E05) produced a
C2 flare at 26/2007Z. New opposite flux emerged around the leading
sunspot resulting in increased flare potential in this reverse
polarity group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for further C-class flares from Region
905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed ended the period
near 330 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm conditions over the next
three days. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into a geoeffective position on 27 and 28 August, and
produce unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods
are expected on 29 August. The x-ray signature of the C2 flare late
today indicates a possible CME. The flare location was near center
disk so a geomagnetic disturbance is possible on 29 August. The
forecast will be updated as appropriate to reflect this change.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 076 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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