Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 30 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 915
(S06W59) has developed into a Dso beta magnetic sunspot group. It
was the source for a B7.2 x-ray flare which occurred at 30/1703Z.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
period. Active conditions are due to the onset of a favorably
positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit were at high levels early in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor
storm conditions are possible on 01 October due to a recurrent
coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 and
03 October.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 078 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 015/015-008/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 11% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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