Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 30 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 915 (S06W59) has developed into a Dso beta magnetic sunspot group. It was the source for a B7.2 x-ray flare which occurred at 30/1703Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. Active conditions are due to the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels early in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible on 01 October due to a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 and 03 October.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 078
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  015/015-008/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm11%01%01%

All times in UTC

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