Viewing archive of Friday, 27 October 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 27 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. A new region emerged today, Region 919 (S15W01) consists of four sunspots exhibiting a Bxo beta magnetic structure.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm conditions may be possible with the expected onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated active conditions may occur on 29 October as the coronal hole wanes. A return to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on 30 October.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 072
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  018/025-008/015-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%15%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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