Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 917 (S05W04)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions on 20 and 21
October due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming
geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22
October.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 070 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 015/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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