Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 October 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are no sunspots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to below 320 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 19 October. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 20 October, and produce active to minor storm periods on both the 20th and 21st.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Oct 070
  Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/008-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%40%35%
Minor storm01%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%50%45%
Minor storm05%30%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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