Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S05W05)
produced occasional B-class flares. This region maintains it's
considerable size, but has become magnetically less complex over the
past 48 hours. Magnetic field maps confirm the sunspot cluster near
the southeast limb is two separate regions. Both these regions, 924
(S08E44) and 925 (S06E52), are small with simple magnetic
configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 15 November. A recurrent high speed stream
is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods on 16
and 17 November.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 095 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 005/005-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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