Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 October 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 31 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 921 (S07E44) has increased in area to approximately 120 millionths and is now classified as a beta gamma magnetic group. New Region 922 (S15E58) was numbered today. At 31/0518 UTC, LASCO C3 imagery showed a halo CME with an approximate plane of sky speed at 390 km/s. This CME is likely a backsided event and therefore, not geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-flare activity is possible from Region 921.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 080
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  080/085/085
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  002/005-002/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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