Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 01 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity continued very low. Region 921 (S07E30) grew in white light and h-alpha to be a moderate-sized sunspot group of approximately 250 millionths. It also shows a degree of magnetic complexity with mixed polarities within its spots. It has been quiet to this point, however.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a C-class flare from Region 921 distinctly possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit were again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 087
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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