Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 923 (S04E21) produced
three C-class flares over the past 24 hours, the largest of which
was a C1.1 at 12/1046Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 923 may produce further C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has
decreased steadily to about 500 km/s. The greater then 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13 - 15
November).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 097 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 020/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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