Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 09 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S04E19) produced a
C1 flare at 09/1059Z. Region 930 has further decayed and now has a
Beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 100
Mev proton event that began at 07/0115Z ended at 09/0735Z, and had a
maximum observed flux of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater than 10
MeV proton event continues but is declining slowly. It had a
maximum observed flux so far of 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10 - 12
December). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end
on 11 December.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 95% | 60% | 30% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 092 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 017/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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