Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 24 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE
is currently elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
possible on 25 December. On 26 December, conditions are expected to
be quiet to unsettled. On 27 December, unsettled to active
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 074 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 008/008-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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