Viewing archive of Monday, 25 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 25 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Regions 931 (S08E55)
and 932 (S07E35) were numbered today. Region 932 was responsible for
several low level B-flares since its emergence. This region is
classified as a beta magnetic group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 932.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 26 December. On 27 December,
unsettled to active conditions are expected. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected to return by 28 December.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 076 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 005/005-012/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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