Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 944 (S10E75)
rotated on the visible disk today and is currently classified as an
alpha magnetic sunspot group. Region 942 (S10W07) remained quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through 24 February. Quiet to minor storm
levels are expected on 25 February due to a recurrent coronal hole.
Isolated major storm periods are possible at high latitudes as the
coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 076 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 078/080/085 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 005/005-005/005-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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