Viewing archive of Friday, 23 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 23 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 944 (S03E61)
retains its alpha magnetic configuration. Region 942 (S11W26) is in
decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 24 February. Expect unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, on 25-26
February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. There
is a chance for isolated major storming at high latitudes on 25
February.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 075 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 078/080/080 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 005/005-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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