Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 April 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 29 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10E23) has shown a slight decrease in trailing spots bordering the main spot. Also, the beginnings of a possible separation of penumbral area on the eastern side of the main spot was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an M-flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Increased activity was due to the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods possible on 30 April. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels by 01 and 02 May.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Apr 085
  Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        29 Apr 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  020/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  010/013-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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