Viewing archive of Monday, 30 April 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Apr 30 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There was slight decay in penumbral area on the trailing edge of Region 953 (S10E09), however, the spot group is maintaining a beta gamma delta magnetic classification. New Region 954 (S05E29) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an M-flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 680 km/s to 570 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period (01 - 03 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 087
  Predicted   01 May-03 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  016/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  012/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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