Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 956
(N03W46) produced a long duration B3 flare at 22/1447Z. This event
had an associated Type II radio sweep (585km/s), and a coronal mass
ejection was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 956 is in decay and
has decreased considerably in size over the last 48 hours, however,
the region still exhibits minor magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from
Region 956.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 23 May. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream will rotate into a geoeffective position on
24 May and produce active to minor storm periods on 24 and 25 May.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 072 Predicted 23 May-25 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 008/010-010/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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