Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 23 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 956 (N03W60) produced a B5 flare at 23/0732Z. A Type II radio sweep (582 km/s) accompanied this flare and a CME was obvious on STEREO imagery. Region 956 continues its slow decay and is now a small beta sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. Region
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storming. Extended periods of southward Bz accounted for the most disturbed periods. Transient flow from the 19 May CME likely contributed to this disturbance.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to major storming over the next three days. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is rotating into a geoeffective position and is expected to produce storm periods. Transient material from today's CME and the CME on 22 May will likely contribute to the disturbed periods.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 070
  Predicted   24 May-26 May  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        23 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  025/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  012/020-020/025-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%45%
Minor storm25%35%35%
Major-severe storm15%20%20%

All times in UTC

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