Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 29 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet 30 August. A recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 31
August and create quiet to unsettled conditions with the possibility
for isolated active periods. Geomagnetic activity should increase
on 01 September to unsettled to active conditions with the
possibility for isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 070 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 002/005-008/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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