Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 August 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 30 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (31 August - 02 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on the first day (31 August), but conditions are expected to increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods late in the day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels should continue through the second day (01 September). Activity levels should decline to mostly unsettled levels on the third day (02 September).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Aug 072
  Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        30 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  008/015-015/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%25%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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