Viewing archive of Friday, 31 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 31 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Three B-class flares were
observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (1 September - 3 September)
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active on day 1 (1 September) as a
recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected on days 2 through 3 (2 September - 3
September).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 071 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 071/071/070 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 007/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/025-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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