Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 27 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. However, a weak shock was
seen at ACE at 1054Z, followed by an increase in magnetic field
strength and density as well as a small increase in velocity. There
were some extended intervals of southward Bz and as a result there
was a period of minor to major storm level activity from 1500-1800Z.
Conditions declined to active to minor storm levels for remainder of
the period (1800-2100Z). Although the observations are not yet
conclusive the disturbance appears to be from a transient structure
in the solar wind, rather than from a recurrent structure. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the
first day (28 September) due to the anticipated onset of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole. Activity should strengthen on the
second day (29 September) to predominantly active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes. Conditions should
decline to predominantly unsettled levels on the third day (30
September).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 067 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 010/015-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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