Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 24 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels due to a coronal hole high
speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position on day one (25
October). Minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm
periods at high latitudes are possible throughout the forecast
period (25 - 27 October).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 068 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 015/020-020/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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