Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 October 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 23 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through most of 24 October. Active periods and isolated minor storm conditions are likely to occur as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position later in the day. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with possible minor storm periods through the rest of the forecast period (25 and 26 October).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Oct 067
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  010/015-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%40%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm10%15%20%

All times in UTC

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