Viewing archive of Monday, 19 November 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 19 2211 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A co-rotating interaction
region was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 19/1715Z elevating solar
wind speeds to approximately 420 km/s. A sudden impulse (11nT) was
detected at the Boulder magnetometer at 19/1811Z. At the end of the
forecast period wind speed was approximately 440 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. On day one (20
November), expect mostly quiet to unsettled levels. On days two and
three (21 to 22 November), conditions are expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels, due to a coronal hole high speed stream
moving into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor storm levels at
middle latitudes, and major storm periods at high latitudes are also
possible on 21 and 22 November.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 070 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 010/010-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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