Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 25 2135 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions,
major storm levels were observed at high latitudes. The ACE
spacecraft observed a co-rotating interaction region at 25/1040Z.
Solar wind speed has increased to approximately 700 km/s, and Bz has
ranged between +/-17 nT, indicating the onset of a coronal hole high
speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions due to the coronal
hole high speed stream throughout the forecast period (26 - 28
October). Minor storm levels at middle latitudes and major storm
conditions at high latitudes are possible on day one of the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 067 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 020/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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