Viewing archive of Monday, 3 September 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 03 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only one low-level B-class flare was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. A single period of active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 03/1200-1500Z. Real-time solar wind speed at ACE remains elevated at approximately 645 km/sec at forecast issue time due to the lingering effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 August. Quiet conditions are expected on 05 August. Expect quiet to active conditions to return on 06 August, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 068
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  017/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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