Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 September 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 30 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Unsettled to active conditions predominated from the start of the day through 1200Z due to continued effects of a high speed stream. However, a clear downward trend in solar wind speed began at about 0800Z and geomagnetic conditions were quiet from 1200Z through the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (01-02 October), and partway through the third day (03 October). However, an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected around mid-day on 03 October as a small coronal hole will be rotating into geoeffective position at that time.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 065
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  024/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  007/008-007/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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