Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 October 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 02 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 03 October as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Minor storm periods are also possible at high latitudes. On 04 October, activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05 October.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 066
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  012/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%10%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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