Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S10W52)
produced several low B-class flares. This region is now a magnetic
beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 978 could produce an isolated low level C-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
A recurrent coronal hole is
expected to become geoeffective 16-18 December. The geomagnetic
field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 December. Active
conditions are expected for 17 December with a chance for isolated
minor storm periods at mid latitudes and isolated major storming at
high latitudes. Unsettled levels with isolated active periods are
expected for 18 December.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 089 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 008/010-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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