Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions on 12-13
January due to a recurrent coronal hole. Conditions are expected to
be predominately unsettled for 14 January.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 076 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 012/015-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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