Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 07 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred. The
visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during days 1 - 2 (08 - 09 Feb).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on
day 3 (10 Feb) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 071 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 007/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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